The aviation industry is in a bind. It’s growing fast yet relies unavoidably on fossil fuels. Large jet alternative technologies remain experimental and uncertain; long haul jet alternatives are experimental and unlikely to arrive before the 2040s.
But for short range air services the story is very different. Battery power is a known science and will soon be adequate to power either piloted or autonomous vehicles on routes up to 200km and beyond.
So it’s in the short haul, intra-city and regional markets, particularly in the more densely populated areas and shorter distances of Australia’s east coast states, where stunning breakthroughs are quickly becoming possible.
Even though the near-demise of leading regional independent Rex Airlines illustrated just how fragile regional services are in this country, there is not a lot in the government’s recent Aviation White Paper to give confidence that things will be much different in the near future. There’s no easy fix, that’s clear and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of interest at federal level in leaping ahead.
Qantas and Virgin aren’t showing much interest either, more fixated on the valuable large jet markets. And the White Paper itself mostly seems to treat regional services from the perspective of emission reduction
But there’s a simple solution in the pipeline for short haul air services. It’s going to revolutionise regional operations, breathing new life into local communities and FIFO markets. It’s electric, it will be cheap and highly flexible.
A year ago, the government invited comments on its Aviation Green Paper. Back then it insipidly suggested that “over the long-term, it is possible that Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) services will improve regional air connectivity…”. Qantas, in its submission on the Green Paper asserted “technology such as electric aircraft or green hydrogen (is) still decades away”, clearly concentrating only on large jets.
AAM “is expected to create thousands of jobs and business opportunities”
There’s obviously been a useful learning process in the past 12 months. A flurry of advice has awakened policy makers to the potential of AAM, provoking at least some warm and hopeful words in the White Paper, even suggesting it “is expected to create thousands of jobs and business opportunities” (no mention of regional development), and announcing an “AAM Strategy” is to be released “in 2024”.
It went on, “AAM aircraft currently in development will be suitable for varying applications, from city air taxi operations through to longer range regional connections”, continuing helpfully to list all the challenges they will face. No hint of fast-tracking or support.
In a later chapter about emission reduction, the Paper later concluded that “available evidence suggests that alternative emerging low and zero emissions aviation technologies are unlikely to be deployed on shorter haul routes until the 2030s…”
Loudly missing was any suggestion of a vision for regional operations, much less seed funding or other capital investment. There seems to be a massive disconnect here: if there is an expectation of the creation of thousands of jobs, how can that be nurtured? Meanwhile, hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent on job creation in other sectors numbered in the tens or sometimes hundreds.
But perhaps there is good news to come in the AAM Strategy….or perhaps not.
Potential domestic flight routes for battery-electric aircraft (according to the White Paper)
Source: Aviation White Paper
Even with this skeleton network, the regional promise is vast. In fact its potential is much wider than represented here.
Indeed, the regional potential is actually short- to medium-term, and it’s much more than “possible”. Small battery-powered electric aircraft will be commercially viable on short routes up to a couple of hundred kilometres well before 2030.
What’s more, if the government were prepared to put its money where its mouth is, Australia could be a leader and major beneficiary of this new technology and accelerate the arrival of all those jobs.
Worldwide, all the major aircraft and engine manufacturers are investing billions of dollars in the sector.
In August, Boeing subsidiary Wisk, with a leg up from some south Queensland mayors, announced a venture in that state, optimistically arguing the AAM sector will account for 3% of Australia’s GDP in 15 years’ time.
That aircraft is essentially a pilotless two-seater urban taxi, an eVTOL (vertical take-off and landing), with a range of 50km and speeds of 200km/hour.
The New Zealand government has invested in Wisk and is also well advanced in integrating eVTOLs into its aviation system; Air NZ has orders for Beta, another all-electric 5-passenger aircraft, which will have a speed of 250kph and range of 600km.
American company Joby, the most advanced in short range battery-powered eVTOL for intra city trips, is partnered by the USAF, Toyota and others in a hydrogen/battery model, has run over 1,000 test flights and plan to commence commercial flights next year. The 4-passenger (plus pilot) aircraft can fly up to 200km at 300kph.
The company has also invested in (still experimental) hydrogen powered long range eVTOL technology. Delta, the US’ biggest full service airline is partnering on that venture. Hydrogen powered aircraft are medium term prospects and will require significant investment.
Conventional battery powered aircraft are very much going to be operational in the “short-term”. There are many others in development, like Lillium, Eviation and Pipistrel developing electric aircraft prototypes, each with major airline partnerships.
Technical innovation offers whole new ways of looking at short distance air travel
With eVTOL, passengers don’t need to be consolidated at an airport but can travel almost point to point. Many of the aircraft under design are small, around 4-10 passengers at first, but they’ll only cost a few million dollars each, once production gets under way.
They offer a whole new range of flexibility; instead of flying airport to airport, they can tailor operations to and from where the traveller wants, and cheaply (incidentally, reducing emissions from surface transport to and from airports).
This is ideal for the whole variety of time-precious professionals essential to regional growth. Easy access to regional communities can keep them alive: health practitioners, business and corporate professionals, public sector employees, educational, tourism and hospitality workers, all of these are the lifeblood of regional vitality.
Many of the eVTOLs under design are small, around 4-10 passengers at first, but with their low capital cost, compared to $50-100 million each for carbon-emitting, noisy conventional aircraft, they will become ubiquitous.
These birds are almost noise-free, have half the unit operating and maintenance costs of conventional equipment, limited emissions and use very cheap fuel, ideally solar. With more entrants and more competition, this boils down to cheap fares and a resilient system. Forget slots, forget dominant airlines, this presages a regional revolution. This takes market control away from the conventional airlines – a reason Air NZ is keen to be investing in the technology, recognising their existing 25-30 minute flights will be threatened.
Larger regional-sized electric aircraft will follow in the early 2030s; like Sweden’s Heart Aerospace’s 30-seater and US/Israeli Eviation’s “Alice”, which will have a range of 800 km (although that requires advances in hydrogen-based power).
AMSL Aero is a home-grown Australian startup, much in need of investment. The White Paper only mentioned Jandakot’s Cloud Dancer pilot training school, which uses 2-seat electric aircraft with 50 minutes flight time’, but there is private capital going into other research ventures.
Dovetail, another Australian company which aims at retro-fitting older, conventional aircraft with electric power is also short on much-needed funding; Rex had taken a 20% share in the company, with their Saab 340 turboprops in mind.
But it is eVTOL that is the exciting and game-changing near term route to a new regional and intra-city transport future. The technology is coming fast as batteries improve and – critically - as investment is poured into development. But a variety of initiatives is needed if it’s to become a reality.
Infrastructure is a must-have, if the new breed of aircraft is to take off and land and use common airspace. Australian company Skyportz is marketing its innovative ground infrastructure, led by a long-term AAM specialist Clem Newton-Brown, who’s also working with the CASA, the Civil Aviation Safety Authority, to shore up regulatory standards and compliance. Skyportz enjoyed a great international reception at July’s Farnborough Airshow in the UK.
Private enterprise is carrying the burden, with minimal government support
In short, private enterprise is carrying the burden of this revolution. But Australia’s impoverished general aviation sector is in no position to provide capital. The White Paper talks of $30 million being available through its Emerging Aviation Technology Partnerships scheme, but that’s a drop in the ocean of what’s needed to advance the cause.
Continued innovation in battery technology, electric propulsion, and lightweight materials will soon improve performance and extend range. Most of the pieces are falling into place, including investment by the big global players, but a large dose of government catalysis is the secret ingredient to adoption in Australia.
This is not just about air services, or emission reduction. It is about the potentially dramatic enhancement of connectivity to and within the regions. It is something that local councils need to be educating themselves about, because these dreams of transformation could become reality in this decade – and widespread within 10 years.
Peter Harbison is Chairman of Greener Airlines, the organiser of the Australia Corporate Travel Summit (ACTS) in Sydney on 13 November 2024. Peter will be interviewing Qantas' Cam Wallace and delivering the 'Black Run' Seminar The Global Aviation & Sustainability Outlook where he will unpack the recently announced Aviation White Paper, discuss Sydney airport slots and airline strategy.
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